Saturday, October 6, 2012
The Middle East is becoming more unstable
Turkey has responded to a single mortar round with 2 days of artillery bombardments. The Turks are posturing for more direct involvement in the war that is being fought in Syria. Hezbollah is becoming more directly involved. (This is to be expected) Libya is moving more slowly toward an Islamic government than many of the other countries in the ‘Arab Spring’. Libya is appointing a number of Muslim Brotherhood ‘representatives’ to important political positions and numerous representatives of competing groups are being left out. This sounds familiar. Iran is suffering from hyperinflation and is seeing unrest today as a direct result. Hyperinflation is a desperate situation to be caught in. Desperate situations call for desperate measures. This is certainly not stability. I do want to point out that I am not crying about the government of Iran being placed into a difficult position. Now that the involvement of the U.S. in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are drawing to a close, our enemies have far more resources to pit against their enemies throughout the region. And they are winning. One great weakness our enemies have is that they are so badly divided. This certainly seems to be changing although it is not apparent at first glance. What we could be seeing is a consolidation phase. The differences are being sorted out, violently. Then all it will take is some type of major spark. The video was an excellent excuse. It cannot be all that hard to find another. Sooner or later, one will occur that spins out of control. (Far worse than the video, although that was bad enough) The financial crisis will be a good start. The hyperinflation in Iran may not be directly connected, but the cause of the unrest in Iran is the same as that in Greece and Spain. It is economic, and people will fight over scarce resources more quickly than any other single reason that I can think of.