Analysis of the ‘war on terror’ today.

During the first year or so of the war in Iraq (2003) the enemy that was attacking our troops were amateurs. The reports that I was reading indicated that our positions were being attacked in the open, our losses were zero and we were inflicting ‘maximum damage’ on the attackers. In other words, we were wiping them out. This changed over time as our enemy learned and adapted. This is not uncommon in warfare. Tactics evolve and change as combat losses tends to force people to learn.

Today, we are seeing an increase in arrests throughout Europe and the U.S. Many of these plots and plotters are amateurs. The plans are really basic and more importantly, the plotters are making very fundamental mistakes. As with the pattern of warfare in Iraq, this is going to change. We can expect the organizations to become more professional. Effectiveness will improve, quickly and dramatically. We are playing good defense so far. However, good defense will not win, nor will it end the war.