Something BIG is going to happen in the next two years. More likely this year rather than next. We just have too many things going wrong. Poor leadership from the U.S. leads the list. The U.S. debt is only beginning to be burdensome. (By some measures, debt has reached 100% of GDP) The out of control government pensions has only begun to bite. The debt of Europeans is creating 'crisis' after 'crisis'. The U.S. is having economic crisis after crisis as well. Just raising the debt limit is a good example. Then we have Islamic nationalists who are gaining the power of governments at an astonishing rate.
It has been a long time since the world has seen a major war on anything like the levels of the first half of the 20th century. All it is going to take is some unforeseen event that upsets the house of cards. I suspect that it will begin with an economic event. I am a firm believer that people fight over scarce resources more than anything. All it will take is some traumatic economic event. I hope that we will be able to avoid this. From what I am seeing today, I doubt that it can be held off for more than another year or two.