Sunday, June 28, 2009

Momentum is being lost

Strategic momentum is being lost. Iran will crush its opposition. I expect them to be hunted down, interrogated (Not as nicely was we would) and then buried. This is a setback of major proportions. Iran is one of the three countries that are actively supporting terrorist organizations. Within a few months, the leadership of Iran should have even better control over their country. It will be a very long time before internal, organized resistance recovers. During this time, it will take an overt invasion from external sources to rid Iran of its current leadership. Iran will then be free to continue it’s current policy of exporting terrorism and development of nuclear weapons.

While we are pressing issues more forcefully in Afghanistan, Pakistan is looking more like it is attempting to get a real handle on the issue. The fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapons with missile systems and that so many Pakistanis are supportive of the Taliban make any progress susceptible to reversal. The area is known for loyalties changing side, often during a shooting war. Osama said it himself. They will back a winner. It will become apparent that it is not so clear-cut a case of the U.S. winning. Many people compared Iran with the U.S. experience in Vietnam. As has been demonstrated, Iraq is quite different from Vietnam. Afghanistan is much more likely to develop like Vietnam than Iraq. The leadership of the United States has an extreme reluctance to take military action on the strategic level. This will contribute to eventually persuading loyalties to switch more and more against us. More like Vietnam than Iraq, although I expect many loyalties to switch away from us in Iraq as well. After all, we are no longer willing to risk our necks for them. When shooting begins, this quality is valued more than any other.

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