Saturday, June 13, 2009

Election in Iran

The recent election in Iran will most likely make little to no difference. Even if the ‘moderate’ candidate had won, I do not see Iran as giving up the pursuit of nuclear arms. Just as importantly, I do not see Iran as backing off of support of the many Islamic terrorist groups that it sponsors. These groups give Iran much influence in other countries, so much that Iran is VERY unlikely to just give this influence up without some compensating benefit(s). Of course, now that Iran’s leader has been re-elected we can expect no change anyway.

Iran and Pakistan remain the most serious threats to regional, if not world peace. Pakistan because of its possession of nuclear weapons and missile systems combined with Islamic ideology and a history of supporting terrorist organizations. Iran is on this list for these same reasons, except its lack of possession of nuclear weapons. As has been well publicized, Iran is on a path that will lead to possession of nuclear weapons within the near future. Once again, time is not on our side.

It can only be a matter of time before a terrorist organization will obtain an effective weapon of mass destruction. The more Islamic countries that have nuclear weapons, the more likely an Islamic terrorist organization will obtain them. As the repeated suicide attacks have demonstrated time and again, mutually assured destruction (MAD) will not work to restrain these groups. It will be far easier for a government like Iran or Pakistan to deny any involvement in any attacks that take place if they supply one of these groups with a nuclear weapon as opposed to launching the attack directly. The election results in Iran will not have altered the probability of these events.

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