The events in Iran have caught me by surprise. Now I have had a few days to think about what is going on and what the potential side effects can be. Several outcomes are possible.
1) The government stays the same.
2) The President is sacked and the new guy is installed, but the government remains controlled by the ‘Revolutionary Council’.
3) The government is toppled and a new order is installed.
Outcomes 1 or 2 will mean disaster. The people who exposed themselves during the demonstrations will be hunted down. I would expect most, if not all to be eventually executed. The ability of Iranians to obtain control of their own government without an invasion from the outside would be set back at least a generation. Most likely multiple generations. After all, it has taken two generations to reach this point.
If the government of Iran is toppled, the holders of the most extreme views of the enemy within Iran will be exposed. They will fight to maintain control and risk being seen and known by the public. The ones who do not escape the country will be hunted down and imprisoned. I would expect many to be brought in front of a court. These people are the enemy that supports Islamic terrorism.
The most difficult problem in the war today is in knowing who our enemies are. This is why it is imperative that the government of Iran is toppled. If we lose, OUR side will be exposed. The loss will be incalculable. This is the time we must fight. We can be quiet about it, but we must ensure that the government of Iran changes in a fundamental way. Iran has been at war against the U.S., our allies and our way of life since the beginning of Iran’s current government in 1979. This is the time to make the effort. Iran is one of the major obstacles to defeating organized terrorism simply because of Iran’s support of terrorist organizations.
This will determine President Obama’s first term. And 2nd term, if re-elected. How effective he is will tell us everything that I need to know about him. It is times like this where caution can be an enemy. There are times in life when you have to take violent action against the bully or aggressive enemy. Conflict is as basic a part of human nature as eating and sleeping. If we do not fight for freedom here, our cause will be immeasurably injured. Acting here just may set back terrorist forces from obtaining nuclear weapons for another 5 to 10 years. This is priceless. It makes open warfare worth the losses sustained, if necessary. The point is, we have to do it when it will make the difference between winning and losing. This is part of the war that we CANNOT afford to lose.
I doubt that President Obama will see it this way. I expect him to under react, or react much too mildly. I can be wrong here, but I see him as being risk adverse to an extreme. He will wait until the dust settles and deal with who wins out. In a way, I can see why he will do this. Many are saying that any overt help from the U.S. would do more damage to the demonstrators than help. To a certain degree, this view is correct. However, this is an extreme situation. The results either way will be extreme. Our war against Islamic terrorism will be either aided immeasurably or hindered beyond calculation. To not take any risks at this time is to allow others to decide how the war will go for the next decade or more. As an American, I want OUR voices hear in this fight. We do have a major stake here as well as the Iranians.