Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Major war more likely today
This war is going to become much larger before it is over. That said I do not believe that it will properly begin just yet. Wars have a nasty habit of going out of control and blowing up. It is only a matter of time before this happens. We are much closer today but I do not believe that we are quite there yet. We are seeing financial crisis in Europe and the U.S. The impact on certain vulnerable parts of the rest of the world will be magnified. I am a firm believer that many wars are caused because of economic reasons. You are not nearly as likely to attack someone over their different belief in God as you are to take his wallet and steal its contents. The God thing is the excuse. What if not enough food or water was available to go around? You would have to fight for survival. All we need is for food prices to go way up and we could expect violence in other parts of the world where the people have fewer resources to rely upon. The Middle East (The Islamic world) is one of the poorest and least productive areas on Earth. It makes sense that violence would spring up there whenever economic conditions take a bad turn for the worse. With the four largest economies in the world struggling, it can be no surprise that the Islamic world is beginning to burn right now. This is a major indicator that leads me to believe that a major regional, if not world war, is much closer today than in decades past. We have a number of indicators that have been pointing this way for a long time. I have been saying for more than 10 years that it is only a matter of time. Today, the excuse is the video. The real cause is a combination of economic and ideological stress. The price of commodities has shot up over the past few years. Food in particular is under a lot of pressure in part because of the drought in the U. S. combined with the emphasis upon bio-fuels. Toss in the generally less productive nature of the U.S. economy caused by a much larger percentage of government allocation of national resources and the violence today can be seen as a potential curtain raiser. The four largest economies in the world are struggling and we in the U.S. are staring at a fiscal cliff. It will be bad here in the U.S. It will be worse in other parts of the world, the Islamic world in particular. In other words, the world is much closer to a major regional if not world war today than it has been in a very long time.