Saturday, July 7, 2012

Kenneth Waltz is nuts

I read his article in Foreign Affairs. (July August 2012) I know that you can do this to me if you cut up what I write. However, this is too much. He seems to believe that we can have 3 outcomes of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons; I believe that we have almost infinite possibilities and he boils all of human nature down to three outcomes! “Final stages of a decades-long Middle East nuclear crisis that will end only when a balance of military power is restored”. I guess he means that military power is restored in Iran’s favor. And he sees this as a good thing that will lead to the end of the Middle Eastern war that actually has been much longer than a few decades long? “Iranian policy is made not by “mad mullahs” but by perfectly sane ayatollahs who want to survive just like any other leaders. REALLY? The only other time in recorded history that we have seen repeated suicide attack had leaders who committed suicide when they lost. Hitler’s German saw some of this, but Japan made it pale by comparison. And you want to gamble potential nuclear war over the Stability of the leaders of similar groups? In Kenneth Waltz view, the purpose of Iran seeking nuclear weapons is for defense and security. I have to agree with him here: Security from potential counterattacks as a result of Iran become more active in its war against the United States and Israel. Iran began its war against the U.S. almost immediately after they took power in 1979 with the seizure of the U.S. embassy. One of the more recent acts was the planned assassination of the Saudi ambassador in Washington. So Iran will become more cautious if it obtains the bomb? This is because everyone else has done so. Forgetting that the U.S. and Soviet Union engaged in numerous proxy wars directly related to the struggle against each other. And we are all compelled to do what those who have preceded us did. One thing about human nature: People will do the dimmest things. “Their has never been a full-scale war between two nuclear-armed states.” As if this cannot ever happen? And the last sentence takes the cake: “When it comes to nuclear weapons, now as ever, more may be better”. I must be a real idiot. I just cannot see how someone can actually believe this. Iran obtaining nuclear weapons will only add fuel to the fire in the major battleground between Islamic nationalism and Western culture. To the medieval mind, nuclear weapons are just a bigger, better bomb. Pakistan is dangerous enough. If we add Iran in possession of nuclear arms, the threat of them being used only goes up, not down. All we will have to do is wait until the next war, which in the Middle East should not take all that long.

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