Wednesday, June 6, 2012
The war is spreading. It makes sense and we can expect more instability throughout the Middle East and the rest of the world. The issues are just too large for the war NOT to spread. In prior posts, I have outlined the reasons why I believe that we are heading for a major conflict. Economics plays a major role although many other reasons are present. Syria in particular is of interest here because of the link with Iran. The fact that the U.S. is for the most part, out of Iraq, is a major help to Iran because we can’t interdict supply and reinforcements. Iraq is a natural road for Iran’s direct influence in Syria. And it all buys Iran time. Time is not on our side. Sooner or later, an Islamic nationalist group will obtain WMD, most likely nuclear weapons, but all are on the table. The instability in Syria can easily work to Iran’s advantage as a distraction toward building up their nuclear capability. I doubt that Iran would start a world war by launching nuclear weapons. I find it much more likely that Iran would allow surrogate organizations to obtain them and let them do the dirty work. If Iran were smart about it, they would not make the mistake our enemy made on 9/11. Iran would wait until their capability was much larger and more of a direct threat to the United States. This would at least make us think twice about going after them. Syria would probably play along no matter whom ends up controlling the country after this current ‘crisis’ is settled. The reason that I say this is because I see two likely outcomes out of Syria: 1) The current regime stays in power. This will only continue the current policies of the Syrian government and I believe that they are in line with Iran on the crucial issue of the war against Israel and the United States. 2) The ‘insurgents’ topple the Syrian government. It is possible that a more moderate government would result, but I find it far more likely that a more extreme form of the current government would be the final product. I believe that this new government would be on Iran’s side even more particularly regarding the war against Israel and the United States. In other words, I believe that Syria is only another of the Middle Eastern governments that will either stay the same or become more firmly in the Islamic camp. This is a core issue in the war and combined with all of the other events in the region, one reason why I say that the war is spreading. P.S. This post is mainly about Syria. Don’t forget about Pakistan, because it is very likely Pakistan will eventually play a major part.