Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Some type of correction is inevitable
It cannot be all that far off. I see too many things that will trigger a major correction. Financial: 1) Debt of the U.S. And the ability of rest of world to continue to purchase U.S. debt. For how long can China and the rest of the world buy U.S. debt? (At a steady level, it may be possible to go on a very long time, but this is not happening.) 2) Debt of Europe and the instability that it is already triggering. Any economic system that takes on more debt than it can maintain or reduce is unstable. 3) Financial crises used to come up every 10 years or so are now occurring with alarming frequency. Now they are happening multiple times a year. Overview: No individual or organization can continue to spend more than it makes forever. Economies of scale can sustain a certain amount of debt, but human nature will tend to overspend. An increasing rate of debt will explode exponentially. Like a reverse mortgage. Once a certain limit is reached, a collapse will occur. As you get closer to the limit, you accelerate toward it. Human: 1) It has been 70 years since the end of the last major, worldwide correction. They happen once in a while. It is only a matter of time until the next one. 2) Humans are unpredictable. We do the dimmest things. Just look at World War I. I am not referring to the waging of the war itself. I refer to the cause and reasons for waging it opposed to the cost and benefits of winning and losing. Islam: 1) Islamic nationalists WILL obtain WMD. It is recognized that only this will obtain for Islamic rule the ability to deal with the nuclear powers on a ‘level playing field’. It is only a matter of time. Anyone want to bet that any WMD would NOT be deployed by Islamic forces? 2) Islamic legal system is spreading. We are losing this war right now. 3) The capabilities of Islamic forces are steadily improving as the massive attrition involved in engaging the U.S. military in Iraq AND Afghanistan has dropped drastically. I refer to not just the human losses but the financial drain as well. This can only improve the Islamic army’s strength and capabilities. 4) Islam is very capable of changing its tactics. The mistake of hitting us too soon on 9/11 may not be made next time around. Things remain stable for only so long. Time periods like this are impossible to predict as to how long they will last, but it is a certainty that it will end. The question is: When? With all of these factors (Plus more that I am sure that I have missed) I am convinced that we will see some type of major, worldwide correction in less than 10 years. If drastic CHANGE is NOT implemented soon, I expect something to happen in less than 5 years. The CHANGE that I am thinking of is major reform in spending by BOTH Europe AND the United States. The wild card is the Islamic army and its activities. This part of the picture is far too widespread and as it strengthens can easily upset the balance.