The UN is scheduled to vote on Palestinian statehood in September. The United States has the capacity to stop this by veto, but I can see President Obama not doing this. He believes that Israel is the problem. This will create a new national government to balance against Israel’s strength. Supposedly, statehood and recognition is what the Palestinians want more than anything. What we will ultimately get is open warfare between two (Or more) national governments.
Just think, HAMAS and FATAH being enabled to have their ‘soldiers’ put on uniforms, complete with all of the rights and abilities of any other national army. And to top this all off, bordering Israel. Want to start a war? This ought to do it just fine.
It may take some time. After all, the irregular ‘army’ that the Palestinians are fielding today will need to be updated and formally organized. Equipment should be and will be updated and expanded in quality and quantity. This takes time, although how much depends upon how eager they are to use it openly. Of course, they just may decide to keep covert for as long as possible, just to keep everyone guessing. Then the question becomes how long will it take them to provoke Israel into launching the next international war by attacking them. This way, Israel becomes the aggressor. This is an important consideration that may postpone the escalation of open warfare. Besides, this way, if Israel can be forced into an ‘invasion’, other governments can become involved. Any attack by Israel would then become a formal ‘invasion’ of another Islamic government. This could easily unite the Islamic world into a major confrontation against Israel. This would play right into Iran’s hand. All Iran would need then would be nuclear weapons. All of this is far more likely today than ever before, particularly if a new national state of Palestinian is established.