Friday, August 22, 2008

This war will become much larger

So far, the ‘war on terror’ is a guerrilla war. Irregular troops are pitted against civil authorities and the military of various countries. It is apparent that the motivations for terrorist actions are based upon Islamic ideology. The common denominator is the repeated suicide attacks. This is only the 2nd time in all of recorded history that this phenomenon has been seen. The 1st occurrence had its basis in the ideology of Bushido. This first occurrence of repeated suicide attack was eventually defeated through massive violence. The entire political, educational and economic systems of the area that produced these attackers were changed completely. The entire culture was changed drastically. The ideology of dying for the emperor was reduced to such a level that it was no longer an organized part of the culture. The ideology that is producing this same behavior today must likewise be eliminated in order to end the organized warfare. This will substantially change the culture that surrounds it. It is almost unthinkable that this type of change can occur without violence.

The widespread occurrence of the phenomenon of repeated suicide attack indicates that the population that is supplying these attackers is so large that it is most likely to continue into the indefinite future unless some cataclysmic event occurs. Such as World War III. The eventual spread of weapons of mass destruction makes the likelihood of their use in this war almost inevitable.

Warfare is conflict raised to the most organized, violent level. The conflicts that trigger wars many times are basic issues that cannot be resolved except through warfare. Slavery in the United States is one obvious example. No political solution was available to end slavery. This is a common feature with many wars. The issues that are underlying the current ‘terrorist wars’ today likewise will not be resolved without violence. Attempting to stall the resolution of these issues or preventing the violence that it triggers just may end up making the overall war much more devastating than it otherwise would be. The fact that so many people are involved in these issues already is an indicator of just how large this war can eventually become.

Most of the southerners who fought and died for slavery were good people. Most of the Germans and Japanese who fought and died in World War II were also good people. By far, the majority of the people who actively supported the war effort in these cases were likewise, good people. The problem was that they fought to preserve their ways of life, and that very way of life HAD to change. We are trapped in a similar situation today.

Islam MUST change. Don’t take my word. Please research Islam and the culture it has nourished. You will find good parts that are to be admired. However, like the Koran itself, Islam has a dark side. This dark side will not go away without violence. The interpretation of many of the rules and laws MUST change in order to be compatible with the rest of the world. Exposure to this change is occurring naturally as the global economy is forcing interaction with the rest of the world. This interaction is being resisted violently. Everywhere the Islamic culture is making contact with the rest of the world, violence is resulting. This must end. Either the world must change and adapt Islam or Islam itself must change. Otherwise, sooner or later one of the irregular groups will obtain an effective weapon of mass destruction. Once WMD are employed, it is a natural progression of warfare to increase the violence to a level the other side either cannot or will not match. In other words, the war will continue to escalate. As all major wars do. (I am defining major war as a war in which way of life is threatened.)

In summary, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are symptoms of a much wider conflict. It is possible that this conflict can be contained if governments that support Islamic terrorism continue to be toppled on a regular basis. This is very unlikely. Politically, the ‘West’ will be able to topple only one or two, if any more governments unless some major event occurs. More likely, the war will simmer for some time and appear to be either over or at such a low level where it is not believed to be a major factor anymore. Time will appear to be on our side. An overall problem is that this view is deceptive.

Time is NOT on our side. Sooner or later one of these terrorist organizations will obtain and deploy an effective weapon of mass destruction. At that point, this ‘Phony War’ will be over. How much larger the war will eventually become will depend upon how many WMD are deployed. Past patterns suggest a continued escalation of the war. The use of multiple weapons of mass destruction would become easily justified. Limiting the war to conventional arms would become extremely difficult, if not impossible. It is possible that ALL of the Islamic governments would then turn on the ‘terrorist’ organizations and eliminate them. More likely, the populations of these parts of the world will fight for their way of life. This resistance will very likely take a more organized form that what we are seeing today.

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