Tuesday, March 20, 2012
The re-election of President Obama could trigger a Middle Eastern conflict
This is just a guess. As with all projections of human actions, it is fraught with the danger that people do the most unpredictable things. I believe that Israeli leadership finds itself in a real exposed position. Right now, with President Obama at the helm in the U.S., Israel is virtually without any support in its effort to restrict Iranian influence. In addition, Israel is on its own if a war breaks out. While this is not new, what is new is the potential for Iran to make the conflict go nuclear. Israel just cannot afford for this to happen. It would only take one nuclear weapon to cripple the country beyond repair. So Israel has a great deal riding on the outcome of the U.S. elections this fall. If President Obama wins re-election, Israeli leadership may likely judge that they are out of time. The possibility of getting through another four years without Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon and then deploying it becomes much more remote. (This is a possible Israeli view, which I tend to agree with) And if the bullets begin to fly, how would their position have changed as a result of the election? It would not, which would lead me to believe that it would be far more likely for Israel to take the risk and attempt a far more aggressive policy to prevent Iran from attaining that position which could easily destroy them.