When running for office, President Obama appeared to be the most anti-war of all the candidates. He was not in favor of either war in Afghanistan and Iraq. He only wanted to get out of both. (March 2008 was his initial target for withdrawal from Iraq) We, the United States, had no business being in either country. I am certain that his actions in Libya are against his wishes. He was forced to act because of events. I am certain that because the rebels were about to be wiped out, the military action was given the green light in order to prevent this outcome. The point here is that the war is growing, despite the efforts of a President who is about as anti-war as can be imagined. The entire region is simmering.
The Telegraph: 3/22/11
Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood gains upper hand
"Islamist reformers seemed to be gaining the upper hand over their secular rivals in Egypt on Monday after gaining a boost in a referendum on constitutional change."
This is not a surprise. However, now that our attention is on Libya, many here and elsewhere will not notice this important ‘CHANGE’. We are losing the war. What is probably not understood by many is that these isolated events are actually part of a much bigger conflict. Many see these events as unique situations that are not connected. This is an incorrect view.
Violence is expanding throughout the Middle East and North Africa. This does not tell us that we are winning or losing. What this does do is create new combat veterans. With all of this combat going on, we can expect many new veterans to crop up all over the world. We can expect terrorist activity to rise to a new level as new terrorists are ‘created’. Actually, this is only doing what the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have begun. However, what is different here is that the enemy is choosing where to fight. The strategic initiative has been lost. In addition, the enemy is not taking anywhere near the losses that they were taking in Iraq. This will allow them to deploy these new assets elsewhere in the world, at places of their choice.
The idea that all of these governments, or even a significant portion of them, will now become functional republics is likely to prove to be absurd. You never can really tell, because humans will do the dandiest things. However, human nature does not change. We can expect the populations of these areas to choose that with what they are most familiar and comfortable with. Remember how the south chose to fight for slavery? The Islamic part of the world has an entirely different culture than we do. It is very possible that they will choose Islamic governance, or some hybrid that is based upon Islamic law. This does not bode well for the interests of the United States and the ‘West’. And if any of these governments become more actively supportive of Islamic nationalism, the rest of the world will be in the cross hairs.