Thursday, May 6, 2010

Change in the war

The recent failed attempt by an amateur Islamic terrorist is just the beginning. This makes three Islamic attacks within the U.S. in the past 6 months. Fort Hood, the failed Christmas attacks and this failed attempt. I remember the first few months of the ‘occupation’ of Iraq. Reports were numerous of failed attempts to attack our soldiers in the open. Maximum damage inflicted. This means that we killed them all in that attack. These attacks were poorly thought out and poorly executed. Within 6 months, the effort by our enemies began to improve. By the time a year had gone by, our enemy had learned enough to contain their own losses. The U.S countered by increasing the combat through attacking the cities, one at a time. We initiated additional combat. In addition, we attacked into positions that our enemy would resist and could not re-supply. It was a series of losing battles for our enemies. We are not doing this today.

Without any classified information, I am guessing that the losses our enemies are taking in combat have fallen drastically from 2007. We are not engaging any significant portion of the enemy army today. The rules of engagement in Afghanistan prevent just about any meaningful action. A withdrawal date of July 2011, which I fully expect to be implemented, will complete the strategic shift to defense. After all, we are winding down operations in Iraq and will be fully out well before the election cycle of 2012 begins. President Obama was against both wars and is determined to end both of them well before he goes up for re-election. This allows our enemy to re-deploy.

This ‘first wave’ is a group a determined individuals. However, they are the amateurs. The next step is for the pros to begin to set up shop in the U.S. I see this as much more easily accomplished and much more likely than in the past. After all, we are in a defensive mode worldwide. We may catch some of them, but most will be able to move around. And many will not be moving into areas where they can attack our military. They will be moving so that they can attack our civilian or ‘soft’ targets. This is change that is not good for us.

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