My expectations are quite high. I believe that we are involved in a cultural war that unless handled firmly, will explode into a regional conflict involving weapons of mass destruction.
I expect our Commander in Chief to wage offensive warfare to prevent this. Not just kill a few ‘insurgents’ in Pakistan or Afghanistan. Islam must change today. Time is NOT on our side and change of this type will be resisted by organized warfare. Winning the war will require Islam to have fundamentally changed its ideology in terms so strong that it will only resemble the Islam of the past in personal, passive ways. In order to accomplish this, much of the Koran will be ignored and deleted. Fundamentally different schooling will be violently resisted and even though most can’t be blamed, it will require governments to enforce. This means that governments need to be held accountable for terrorist activity and ideology. Iran and Syria are known supporters. HAMAS is an excellent case. I doubt that our Commander in Chief will pursue this approach without having been overtly attacked.
President Obama will play good defense, but will fail to prosecute the war effectively enough to prevent direct attacks upon us. The U.S. has not been directly hit in more than 7 years. I expect the momentum we have gained by our beating up our enemy in Iraq (I do not believe it is over yet) will allow us some time before our new policies begin to open up our vulnerability.
Depending upon how well our enemy can re-deploy; I expect at least a year or two. After that, the probabilities of direct attacks upon us go up exponentially.
The key is to engage the terrorist army with our army. As Iraq has demonstrated, the enemy can’t stand up to combat troops and can’t maintain its forces in the field with the attrition that is ordinary when engaging a trained army. President Obama will not do any of this. He will attempt to negotiate and talk his way out of fighting. This will enable our enemies to recover from their losses, slow and stop the attrition they have been undergoing and begin to build new capabilities.