Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Hamas recovery

Notice how Hamas is keeping a low profile these days. Although they were not hit as hard as Hezbollah was a few years ago, Hamas did lose over 5% of its combat capability. Hamas needs to replace the men that they lost, plus all of the weapons and munitions that were expended. It would be unwise to provoke the Israeli army at this point. The Israeli military has lost none of its capability, so it would be best for Hamas to be relatively quiet and rebuild without interference.

As a general observation, I expect terrorist activity worldwide to drop off over the next year or two. Now that the drain of manpower and munitions has fallen off in Iraq, our enemy is basically doing what Hamas is doing. Let things settle down and replace losses. After that, I expect our enemy to begin to develop new capabilities. Unless of course, the U.S. starts another fight that forces them to engage us. I do not expect this, and I would like to point out that Afghanistan really does not qualify. The terrain of Afghanistan is the worst in the world for a mechanized military to engage in battle. The supply situation in Afghanistan is far more difficult and will be more expensive and less effective. It will require far more soldiers than Iraq, given that every thing else is even. Expansions of our combat force in Afghanistan will not reach the level required. In any case it would be an inefficient use of our military. Better to force the enemy to attack us in other places.


  1. Where did you get the number of 5% from?

  2. I have seen published guesses at Hamas armed manpower that put them at arount 20,000. Losing over 1,000 KIA and wounded amounts to about 5%. I was attempting to make the point that percentage wise, Hamas did not get hit as hard as Hezbollah did a few years ago.