Thursday, January 22, 2009

Israel versus Hamas

Now that a cease-fire has been called between HAMAS and Israel, we can begin to analyze the results. HAMAS had an estimated 20,000 fighters in it’s ‘army’. The IDF numbers around 160,000. In statistics alone, just to break even, HAMAS needs to inflict 8 times more casualties in the Israeli army. From the estimates I have seen, HAMAS has lost several hundred KIA. Israel has lost about 10. More importantly, more than 90% of HAMAS maintains its combat capability. This is in contrast to the 30-day war that Israel and Hezbollah fought in the summer of 2006.

HAMAS will be able to recover its capabilities more rapidly than Hezbollah for a number of reasons. Not the least is that it has to replace far less of a percentage of its pre-battle forces. In addition, HAMAS has access to far more resources than Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has been quiet for more than 2 and ½ years. This would seem an adequate amount of time to replace losses in material and manpower. They can be expected to become more active in the future, if not sooner.

HAMAS can become more active almost immediately. They did get a bloody nose from this latest fight, but that is all. They in no way took the body blow that Hezbollah took back in 2006. They may not choose to become more active for a number of reasons. However, we can expect HAMAS to become more active in the future, and it can easily be the near future if they chose to do so.

P.S. Politically it is always important to declare victory. Note how the U.S. declared peace with honor after it decided to withdraw from Vietnam. I do not understand politics very well, but it would be natural to tell your people that you won. This makes it easier to withstand the pain of loss and rebuilding.

No comments:

Post a Comment